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Colorado State Basin Outlook Report for January, 2011


	COLORADO Water Supply Outlook Report as of January 1, 2011

Colorado is on track for a very good water year in 2011.  January 1 
snowpack totals are above average statewide, with most western basins 
near 150% of average.  December was the most productive month for 
snowfall across the state, especially across the southern basins.  
Reservoir storage remains in good condition across most of the state.  
Given the bright outlook for summer water supplies, refilling 
existing storage deficits should be easily achieved.  Early season 
runoff forecasts call for near to above average runoff for most of 
the state.  With a little luck, the current storm track will remain 
in place for a few months and the state can experience an exceptional 
runoff year.  If not, given current snowpack levels, that state can 
endure a dry month without drastically affecting water supplies.


	SNOWPACK

Snowpack totals have reached above average levels in all basins as of 
January 1.  Snowfall has been average or above each month since 
October throughout the Colorado, North Platte, South Platte, Yampa 
and White basins.  Across the southern basins, snowfall during 
October was generally below average and November's snowfall was well 
below average.  In late December, concerns about lack of snowpack 
across southern Colorado diminished as these basins received 
impressive snowfall totals from a series of Pacific storms.  Snowfall 
was measured in feet rather than inches during these storms as 
snowpack totals increased from well below average to well above 
average in just a couple of weeks time.  For example, in the San Juan 
Animas, Dolores, and San Miguel basins snowpack totals increased by 
over 400% during the second half of December.  By January 1, record 
high snowpack totals (for that date) were measured at SNOTEL sites in 
areas of southwestern Colorado and on the Grand Mesa.  The only 
exception to these increases was in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains 
where snowpacks were left essentially unchanged.  The current 
readings in the Yampa and White basins are nearly double those 
measured at this time last year.  For a statewide total, the January 
1 snowpack is now at 136% of average and is 159% of last year's 
snowpack at this time.  All basins are tracking above last year's 
totals, which is especially true across the northern basins.    With 
60% of the winter snowpack accumulation season remaining, a lot can 
still happen.  The state needs at least average snowfall for the next 
three to four months to assure our current water supply forecasts are 
maintained for the summer of 2011.


	PRECIPITATION

Precipitation across Colorado's high county has been generally above 
average thus far during the 2011 water year, which began on October 
1, 2010.  Statewide total precipitation during October was 148% of 
average, with every basin except the Rio Grande reporting above 
average monthly totals.  November was somewhat drier across the state 
coming in with a statewide monthly total of 105% of average at SNOTEL 
sites.  Only the state's northern basins reported above average 
precipitation during November, with the southern basins lagging far 
below the average mark for the month.  These dry conditions persisted 
into December across the southern basins.  With a sudden shift in the 
storm track, this pattern quickly ended.  By the end of December, 
monthly totals across the state were consistently well above average, 
with southwestern Colorado exceeding 200% for the month.  For the 
state, December's totals were 159% of average.  By January 1, water 
year totals were above average in all basins, and the statewide water 
year totals were 137% of average.


	RESERVOIR

Reservoir storage across Colorado continues to track near the mid-
winter average.  Statewide storage on January 1 was 100% of average 
and was 99% of last year's volumes.  Although statewide volumes are 
at average levels, only the Gunnison, Colorado, and combined San 
Juan, Animas, Dolores, and San Miguel basins are reporting above 
average volumes.  The lowest volume, as a percent of average, is 
reported in the Rio Grande basin, which has dipped to 78% of average 
on January 1.   This basin also reported below average storage 
throughout 2010.  However, given the relatively small amount of 
available storage in this basin, their current basinwide deficit 
remains at only 19,000 acre-feet.  Elsewhere across the state, below 
average storage is also reported in the Yampa and Arkansas basins, at 
90% and 93% of average, respectively.  Given the bright outlook for 
water supplies in 2011, these deficits should be easily overcome with 
a near average weather pattern for the next few months.


	STREAMFLOW

Statewide, 2011 is beginning with the best outlook for summer water 
supplies since 1997.  Near, to slightly above average runoff is 
forecast nearly statewide.  A few smaller basins stand out with 
exceptional prospects for runoff.  This includes streams flowing from 
the Grand Mesa, along with the Upper Yampa, North Platte and 
headwater tributaries of the Colorado River.  Runoff forecasts in 
these basins typically range from 120% to 140% of average.  The only 
area which stands out with below average prospects includes those 
streams flowing from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains which did not see 
any significant improvement from those beneficial December storms.  
Runoff forecasts on these streams range from only 51% to 79% of 
average.  Given the above average precipitation which fell during 
October, mostly as rain, soil moisture across most of Colorado should 
be in good to excellent condition.  This additional moisture in the 
soil profile will help improve runoff efficiency once we enter the 
spring and summer runoff period.  With a few more months of adequate 
snowfall across the high country, good runoff conditions should 
prevail across the state in 2011.


	GUNNISON RIVER BASIN as of January 1, 2011

For awhile it looked like the Gunnison River Basin snowpack was going 
to fall victim to the "La Nina" style weather that set in early in 
the water year.  SNOTEL data shows the snowpack at the end of October 
was a mere 68 percent of average.  By the end of November, conditions 
had improved to 87 percent of average, but the real turnaround came 
in mid-December when a more favorable weather pattern set in.  By 
January 1, the snowpack had jumped to 158 percent of average, making 
it the highest January 1 percentage the basin has had since 1997 (at 
172 percent of average).  The increase in snow water content from 
December 18 to January 1 was 225 percent of the average total for the 
entire month.  Sub-basin snowpacks are all well above average, 
ranging from 155 percent of average in the Uncompahgre Watershed to 
182 percent of average in the Surface Creek Drainage.  Mountain 
precipitation figures fared a little better with near to above 
average monthly totals reported from October through December.  
December precipitation was a whopping 211 percent of average.  Total 
precipitation for the water year is 146 percent of average.  Although 
slightly below last year's figures at this time, reservoir storage 
came in at 102 percent of average and 69 percent of capacity.  The 
water supply outlook for the basin is positive with most forecast 
points expected to show near to well above average runoff this spring 
and summer.  April-July forecasts range from 98 percent of average 
for Cochetopa Creek near Parlin to 146 percent of average for Surface 
Creek at Cedaredge.

================================================================================
                              GUNNISON RIVER BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt | ===============  Chance of Exceeding * ============== |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Taylor Park Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL       80      103       120      117       138      168       103  

Slate R nr Crested Butte
   APR-JUL       76       90       100      112       110      127        89  

East R at Almont
   APR-JUL      154      198       230      120       265      320       192  

Gunnison R near Gunnison (2)
   APR-JUL      300      395       465      119       540      665       390  

Tomichi Ck at Sargents
   APR-JUL     19.8       27        33      103        40       51        32  

Cochetopa Ck bl Rock Ck nr Parlin
   APR-JUL      9.4     13.6      17.0       98        21       28      17.3  

Tomichi Ck at Gunnison
   APR-JUL       43       65        84      104       106      145        81  

Lake Fk at Gateview
   APR-JUL       91      113       130      103       148      176       126  

Blue Mesa Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL      500      675       810      113       955     1200       720  

Paonia Reservoir Inflow (2)
   MAR-JUN       78      110       135      135       163      210       100  
   APR-JUL       75      110       138      135       169      220       102  

NF Gunnison R nr Somerset (2)
   APR-JUL      265      340       400      131       465      565       305  

Surface Ck at Cedaredge
   APR-JUL     15.8       21        25      146        30       37      17.1  

Ridgway Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL       73       94       110      108       127      154       102  

Uncompahgre R at Colona (2)
   APR-JUL       88      123       150      108       180      230       139  

Gunnison R nr Grand Junction (2)
   APR-JUL     1190     1590      1900      122      2230     2780      1560  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1971-2000 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              GUNNISON RIVER BASIN
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
BLUE MESA                        830.0        556.8        579.0        545.8   
CRAWFORD                          14.0          5.8          5.6          7.5   
FRUITGROWERS                       3.6          2.2          2.2          2.8   
FRUITLAND                          9.2          1.0          0.6          1.3   
MORROW POINT                     121.0        112.2        111.5        113.4   
PAONIA                            15.4          1.5          1.2          4.7   
RIDGWAY                           83.0         66.6         64.8         60.1   
TAYLOR PARK                      106.0         74.3         68.6         67.7   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              GUNNISON RIVER BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Average
================================================================================
UPPER GUNNISON BASIN                  9                174                159
SURFACE CREEK BASIN                   2                225                182
UNCOMPAHGRE BASIN                     3                160                155
TOTAL GUNNISON RIVER BASIN           12                171                158
================================================================================


	UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN as of January 1, 2011

The snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin has gotten off to an 
excellent start in Water Year 2011.  SNOTEL data shows well above 
average snowpack conditions in the basin on November 1 and December 1 
at 147 and 130 percent of average, respectively.  Snowpack conditions 
on January 1 were measured at 147 percent of average, the highest 
January 1 figure the basin has seen since 1997.  Last year's snowpack 
at this time was only 81 percent of average.  Sub-basin snowpacks are 
mostly well above average.  The highest snowpack percentage was 
recorded in the Willow Creek Drainage at 188 percent of average.  The 
lowest, at 129 percent of average, came from the Williams Fork 
Watershed (which is still the second highest percentage this 
watershed has witnessed in the last 20 years, just behind 2006 at 149 
percent of average).  Not surprisingly, monthly precipitation at the 
higher elevations was above average for the past three months at 169, 
118 and 142 percent of average.  Total precipitation for the water 
year so far is 141 percent of average and 168 percent of last year's 
total at this time.  Reservoir storage is near normal at 105 percent 
of average and slightly above the totals reported at this time last 
year.  Water users throughout the basin can expect above average to 
well above average streamflows this spring and summer.  April-July 
forecasts indicate flows will range from 113 percent of average for 
both the Eagle River below Gypsum and the Inflow to Ruedi Reservoir 
to 137 percent of average for the Inflow to Willow Creek Reservoir.

================================================================================
                              UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt | ===============  Chance of Exceeding * ============== |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Lake Granby Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL      200      245       280      124       315      370       225  

Willow Ck Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL       44       59        70      137        82      102        51  

Williams Fk Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL       76       96       110      116       125      150        95  

Dillon Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL      134      172       200      120       230      280       167  

Green Mountain Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL      225      290       335      120       385      465       280  

Muddy Ck bl Wolford Mtn Reservoir nr Kre
   APR-JUL       46       63        76      127        90      114        60  

Eagle R bl Gypsum (2)
   APR-JUL      250      325       380      113       440      535       335  

Colorado R nr Dotsero (2)
   APR-JUL     1140     1470      1720      119      1990     2410      1440  

Ruedi Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL      112      139       160      114       182      215       141  

Roaring Fk at Glenwood Springs (2)
   APR-JUL      570      725       840      118       965     1160       710  

Colorado R nr Cameo (2)
   APR-JUL     1980     2510      2910      120      3340     4020      2420  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1971-2000 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
DILLON                           254.0        218.8        239.7        224.8   
LAKE GRANBY                      465.6        402.4        354.0        322.1   
GREEN MOUNTAIN                   146.8         71.5         74.3         90.3   
HOMESTAKE                         43.0          0.0         21.7         28.4   
RUEDI                            102.0         74.0         72.8         79.7   
VEGA                              32.9         11.8         11.4         11.0   
WILLIAMS FORK                     97.0         81.3         77.8         62.9   
WILLOW CREEK                       9.1          6.9          4.8          6.1   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Average
================================================================================
BLUE RIVER BASIN                      5                189                144
UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN           19                186                143
MUDDY CREEK BASIN                     2                211                152
PLATEAU CREEK BASIN                   2                225                182
ROARING FORK BASIN                    7                165                146
WILLIAMS FORK BASIN                   2                163                129
WILLOW CREEK BASIN                    2                300                187
TOTAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN           28                184                147
================================================================================


	SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN as of January 1, 2011

The South Platte River Basin's current January 1 snowpack, at 126 
percent of average, ranks fifth against the 26 year period of record.  
The only years that posted better snowpacks on January 1 were 1996, 
1997, 2006, and 2007.  Current snowpack conditions closely resemble 
the observations from January 1, 2006 and 2007, where snow water 
equivalent finally peaked in April near to slightly above average 
with below average precipitation occurring January through April of 
those years.  Presently, sub-basin snowpacks are quite variable 
ranging from 98 percent of average on the Upper South Platte up to 
184 percent of average on the Saint Vrain.  Loveland Basin SNOTEL at 
218 percent of average, is heavily influencing the Clear Creek 
snowpack totals at 170 percent of average.  Water year precipitation 
is showing 141 percent of average after starting off with October 
precipitation at 188 percent of average.  Well above normal 
precipitation during the month of October should hopefully lead to 
charged soils when snowmelt begins, ultimately meaning more runoff.  
Other than Bear Creek and Antero Reservoir inflow, streamflows across 
the South Platte River Basin are projected to be above average at 
this point.  The Bear Creek outlook is rather bleak due to the lone 
data point of Echo Lake SNOTEL.  Echo Lake sports a snowpack at only 
48 percent of average which is close to the Bear Creek forecasts 
projections.  Clear Creek at Golden and Cache La Poudre River at the 
canyon mouth streamflow forecasts look the most promising at above 
120 percent of average.

================================================================================
                              SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt | ===============  Chance of Exceeding * ============== |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Antero Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL      6.1      9.2      12.3       73      16.4       25      16.8  
   APR-SEP      7.4     11.4      15.3       70        20       31        22  

Spinney Mountain Res Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL       31       46        60      107        78      116        56  
   APR-SEP       37       56        75      109       100      154        69  

Elevenmile Canyon Res Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL       30       46        61      105        81      123        58  
   APR-SEP       36       57        78      108       107      171        72  

Cheesman Lake Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL       62       93       122      107       160      240       114  
   APR-SEP       76      116       154      110       205      310       140  

South Platte R at South Platte (2)
   APR-JUL      104      160       215      105       290      445       205  
   APR-SEP      129      200       270      106       365      565       255  

Bear Ck ab Evergreen
   APR-JUL      4.3      7.0       9.8       51      13.6       22      19.3  
   APR-SEP      6.1      9.6      13.1       52      17.8       28        25  

Bear Ck at Morrison
   APR-JUL      3.7      6.6       9.8       39      14.5       26        25  
   APR-SEP      5.3      9.2      13.4       43      19.4       34        31  

Clear Ck at Golden
   APR-JUL      103      123       137      125       151      171       110  
   APR-SEP      131      154       170      127       186      210       134  

St. Vrain Ck at Lyons (2)
   APR-JUL       92      104       112      119       120      132        94  
   APR-SEP      109      122       131      120       140      153       109  

Boulder Ck nr Orodell (2)
   APR-JUL       50       56        61      117        66       72        52  
   APR-SEP       56       64        70      117        76       84        60  

S Boulder Ck nr Eldorado Springs (2)
   APR-JUL       34       40        43      105        46       52        41  
   APR-SEP       36       43        48      104        53       60        46  

Big Thompson R at Canyon Mouth (2)
   APR-JUL       93      105       114      115       123      135        99  
   APR-SEP      112      128       138      116       148      164       119  

Cache La Poudre at Canyon Mouth (2)
   APR-JUL      225      270       300      122       330      375       245  
   APR-SEP      255      305       340      124       375      425       275  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1971-2000 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
ANTERO                            19.9         19.9         20.1         16.5   
BARR LAKE                         30.1         13.5         23.4         22.4   
BLACK HOLLOW                       6.5          2.8          3.2          3.8   
BOYD LAKE                         48.4         36.9         40.8         31.7   
BUTTON ROCK/RALPH PRICE           16.2         15.0         14.7         13.6   
CACHE LA POUDRE                   10.1          6.8          9.4          6.3   
CARTER                           108.9         36.5         77.3         74.7   
CHAMBERS LAKE                      8.8          4.0          7.0          2.8   
CHEESMAN                          79.0         77.3         67.9         60.9   
COBB LAKE                         22.3         20.2         20.7         13.9   
ELEVEN MILE                       98.0         99.2         99.5         95.9   
EMPIRE                            36.5         29.5         16.1         22.2   
FOSSIL CREEK                      11.1          5.3         10.4          6.3   
GROSS                             41.8         30.2         26.1         26.2   
HALLIGAN                           6.4          5.1          4.3          3.6   
HORSECREEK                        14.7          1.6          3.6         10.9   
HORSETOOTH                       149.7         78.2         66.7         87.8   
JACKSON                           26.1         24.1         23.5         23.0   
JULESBURG                         20.5         16.7         16.2         18.4   
LAKE LOVELAND                     10.3          7.3          9.3          8.9   
LONE TREE                          8.7          5.5          7.4          6.0   
MARIANO                            5.4          3.0          4.4          4.1   
MARSHALL                          10.0          3.7          6.5          4.7   
MARSTON                           13.0          2.2          9.4         12.7   
MILTON                            23.5         14.5          0.0         14.8   
POINT OF ROCKS                    70.6         51.4         48.3         51.1   
PREWITT                           28.2         14.8         20.5         18.0   
RIVERSIDE                         55.8         44.8         37.2         38.1   
SPINNEY MOUNTAIN                  49.0         38.2         35.1         35.4   
STANDLEY                          42.0         33.2         35.4         32.5   
TERRY LAKE                         8.0          5.3          5.9          5.2   
UNION                             13.0         11.8         12.3         10.4   
WINDSOR                           15.2         10.8         11.6         10.0   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Average
================================================================================
BIG THOMPSON BASIN                    3                159                144
BOULDER CREEK BASIN                   3                115                109
CACHE LA POUDRE BASIN                 2                121                125
CLEAR CREEK BASIN                     2                164                170
SAINT VRAIN BASIN                     1                140                184
UPPER SOUTH PLATTE BASIN              6                128                 98
TOTAL SOUTH PLATTE BASIN             17                137                126
================================================================================


	YAMPA, WHITE, AND NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASINS as of January 1, 2011

A steady stream of winter storms passing through northern Colorado 
ensured a great start to the snowpack season in the combined Yampa, 
White, North Platte and Laramie River basins.  January 1 snowpacks in 
the Laramie and North Platte basins were 147 percent of average, 
which is just slightly below the 150 percent of average figure 
recorded in January 1, 1997.   This is significantly higher than the 
83 percent of average snowpacks observed last year at this time.  In 
the Yampa and White River basins, snowpack totals are 145 percent of 
average, also the highest the basin has experienced since 1997, and 
196 percent of last year's January 1 readings.  Sub-basin snowpacks 
are mostly well above average and range from 124 percent of average 
in the Laramie Watershed to 152 percent of average in the North 
Platte.  Monthly precipitation at the higher elevations was well 
above average in October, November and December at 188, 131 and 141 
percent of average, respectively.  Total water year precipitation is 
currently 150 percent of average and 167 percent of the total 
precipitation measured at this time last year.  Storage at Stagecoach 
is 86 percent of average and 68 percent of capacity.  Yamcolo is 
faring a little better at 111 percent of average and 70 percent of 
capacity.  Above average to well above average streamflows are 
expected across the combined basins this spring and summer.  April-
July runoff should range from 108 percent for the Yampa River above 
Stagecoach Reservoir to 149 percent of average for the North Platte 
River near Northgate.

================================================================================
                              YAMPA, WHITE, AND NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASINS
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt | ===============  Chance of Exceeding * ============== |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
North Platte R nr Northgate
   APR-JUL      245      315       365      149       415      485       245  
   APR-SEP      275      350       405      150       460      535       270  

Laramie R nr Woods
   APR-JUL      125      147       162      132       177      199       123  
   APR-SEP      139      163       179      133       195      220       135  

Yampa R ab Stagecoach Reservoir
   APR-JUL       25       33        40      108        47       60        37  

Yampa R at Steamboat Springs (2)
   APR-JUL      240      295       335      120       380      450       280  

Elk R nr Milner
   APR-JUL      310      375       420      129       470      545       325  

Elkhead Ck ab Long Gulch nr Hayden
   APR-JUL       48       74        95      134       118      158        71  

Yampa R nr Maybell (2)
   APR-JUL      820     1080      1280      129      1490     1840       990  

Little Snake R nr Slater
   APR-JUL      125      162       190      120       220      270       159  

Little Snake R nr Dixon
   APR-JUL      265      340       400      121       460      560       330  

Little Snake R nr Lily
   APR-JUL      245      350       435      119       530      685       365  

White R nr Meeker
   APR-JUL      230      290       335      116       385      460       290  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1971-2000 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              YAMPA, WHITE, AND NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASINS
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
STAGECOACH                        33.3         22.6         28.9         26.4   
YAMCOLO                            8.7          6.1          6.0          5.5   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              YAMPA, WHITE, AND NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASINS
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Average
================================================================================
LARAMIE RIVER BASIN                   2                103                124
NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN              7                199                152
TOTAL NORTH PLATTE BASIN              9                176                147
ELK RIVER BASIN                       2                228                144
YAMPA RIVER BASIN                     9                210                149
WHITE RIVER BASIN                     4                172                143
TOTAL YAMPA AND WHITE RIVER          12                196                145
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER BASIN              6                171                150
TOTAL YAMPA, WHITE AND NORTH         24                182                147
================================================================================


	ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN as of January 1, 2011

Given the overall conditions in the state, to say the Arkansas River 
Basin has the lowest snowpack levels should not necessarily be taken 
negatively.  January 1 snowpack this year is actually above average 
at 105 percent, most notably up from 73 percent of average on 
December 8.  A moisture laden storm pattern during the month of 
December provided above average precipitation to the southwestern US 
including the entire Arkansas River Basin.  As is usually the case in 
a La Nina winter, the Upper Arkansas River Basin's above average 
snowpack, 142 percent, is making up for the deficits of the lower 
sub-basins, all near 60 percent.  Precipitation totals are near 
average at 101 percent, down slightly from 113 percent in October due 
to a particularly dry weather pattern during the month of November.   
Specific attention should be paid to individual reservoirs levels.  
Currently levels range from zero storage, at Great Plains and Horse 
Creek reservoirs to 183 percent of average capacity at Meredith 
Reservoir.  As a whole, reservoir levels of the Arkansas River Basin 
are just below where they typically are this time of year at 93 
percent of average and 92 percent of last year.  Streamflow forecasts 
reflect the snowpack levels of their respective basins.  Forecasts in 
the upper reaches of the Arkansas River Basin show tendencies towards 
above average streamflows, near or above 110 percent.  Conversely, 
forecasts toward the lower end of the basin are significantly lower, 
with only one location showing a forecast above 80 percent.

================================================================================
                              ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt | ===============  Chance of Exceeding * ============== |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
CHALK CK at Nathrop
   APR-JUL     16.5       24        29      126        35       45        23  
   APR-SEP       21       29        35      130        42       53        27  

ARKANSAS RIVER at Salida (2)
   APR-JUL      220      270       305      120       345      405       255  
   APR-SEP      270      330       375      119       420      495       315  

GRAPE CK nr Westcliffe
   APR-JUL      1.6      6.7      12.0       75      18.9       32      16.1  
   APR-SEP      7.8     11.8      15.0       77      18.6       25      19.6  

PUEBLO RESERVOIR Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL      265      360       430      112       510      635       385  
   APR-SEP      345      455       540      111       630      775       485  

HUERFANO RIVER nr Redwing
   APR-JUL      4.8      7.1       9.0       73      11.1     14.6      12.3  
   APR-SEP      6.5      9.3      11.5       74      13.9     17.9      15.5  

CUCHARAS RIVER nr La Veta
   APR-JUL      2.1      5.1       8.0       71      11.5     17.8      11.3  
   APR-SEP      3.1      6.6       9.8       75      13.6       20      13.0  

TRINIDAD LAKE Inflow (2)
   MAR-JUL      7.7     17.8        27       79        38       58        34  
   APR-SEP     13.1       25        36       82        48       70        44  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1971-2000 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
ADOBE                             62.0         28.5         34.3         23.4   
CLEAR CREEK                       11.4          7.3          6.7          5.9   
CUCHARAS RESERVOIR                40.0          0.1          0.6          4.8   
GREAT PLAINS                     150.0          0.0          0.0         32.2   
HOLBROOK                           7.0          0.9          1.6          3.0   
HORSE CREEK                       27.0          0.0          0.0          8.4   
JOHN MARTIN                      616.0         42.4         48.6        108.7   
LAKE HENRY                         8.0          5.1          3.9          3.7   
MEREDITH                          42.0         24.9         29.5         13.6   
PUEBLO                           354.0        207.3        226.7        144.0   
TRINIDAD                         167.0         16.7         17.6         24.2   
TURQUOISE                        127.0         83.4         85.4         87.9   
TWIN LAKES                        86.0         54.1         54.8         46.3   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Average
================================================================================
UPPER ARKANSAS BASIN                  3                160                142
CUCHARAS & HUERFANO RIVER BA          2                 63                 63
PURGATOIRE RIVER BASIN                2                 73                 62
TOTAL ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN            6                116                105
================================================================================


	UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN as of January 1, 2011

The start of the 2011 snowpack in the Upper Rio Grande Basin has been 
an eventful one to say the least.  January 1 SNOTEL data suggests a 
very normal beginning, but looking back at December 2010, that data 
tells a more dramatic story.  On December 16 the Upper Rio Grande 
Basin snowpack was at 45 percent of normal.  With NOAA's Climate 
Prediction Center predicting a moderate-to-strong La Nina for the 
coming winter, precipitation forecasts were not positive.  Soon 
after, a two week deluge of snow pounded the western Upper Rio Grande 
Basin.  One example of the storm totals can be seen at Wolf Creek 
Summit SNOTEL which saw increases from the 25th percentile on 
December 16 to a record high snow water equivalent for January 1.  
Current snowpack conditions look exactly like they did two years ago 
at 125 percent of average and not too far from that seen on January 1 
in 2005 and 2008.  Precipitation saw the same increases as snowpack 
throughout the basin in December starting out near 70 percent in the 
months of October and November to slightly above average at 103 
percent to end the month of December.  Reservoir levels have stayed 
below average to ring in the New Year at 78 percent of normal.  The 
only reservoir at 100 percent of average is the Rio Grande Reservoir.   
Streamflow forecasts originating from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains 
are between 50 and 80 percent of normal.  Streamflow predictions from 
western regions of the Upper Rio Grande Basin are much better and 
more consistent ranging from 101 percent to 110 percent of average.

================================================================================
                              UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt | ===============  Chance of Exceeding * ============== |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Rio Grande at Thirty Mile Bridge (2)
   APR-SEP      104      131       150      110       171      205       136  
   APR-JUL       97      116       130      110       145      170       118  

Rio Grande at Wagon Wheel Gap (2)
   APR-SEP      250      320       370      107       425      515       345  

SF Rio Grande at South Fork (2)
   APR-SEP       93      119       140      106       163      200       132  

Rio Grande nr Del Norte (2)
   APR-SEP      380      485       570      107       660      815       531  

Saguache Ck nr Saguache (2)
   APR-SEP       21       29        35      106        42       53        33  

Alamosa Ck ab Terrace Reservoir
   APR-SEP       48       63        74      106        86      107        70  

La Jara Ck nr Capulin
   MAR-JUL      5.1      7.3       9.2      106      11.4     15.1       8.7  

Trinchera Ck ab Turners Ranch
   APR-SEP      3.4      5.5       7.2       60       9.1     12.4      12.0  

Sangre de Cristo Ck (2)
   APR-SEP      1.0      2.2       4.5       51       7.5     13.4       8.8  

Ute Creek
   APR-SEP      2.3      5.2       7.9       65      11.1     16.9      12.2  

Platoro Reservoir Inflow
   APR-JUL       43       54        68      106        73       89        64  
   APR-SEP       51       64        74      104        85      103        71  

Conejos R nr Mogote (2)
   APR-SEP      142      186       220      110       260      320       200  

San Antonio R at Ortiz
   APR-SEP      8.1     12.9      17.0      104        22       31      16.4  

Los Pinos R nr Ortiz
   APR-SEP       45       62        75      101        90      116        74  

Culebra Ck at San Luis (2)
   APR-SEP      8.7     13.7      18.0       78        23       32        23  

Costilla Reservoir Inflow
   MAR-JUL      4.0      5.9       7.5       71       9.3     12.5      10.6  

Costilla Ck nr Costilla (2)
   MAR-JUL      8.2     13.4      18.0       69        24       34        26  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1971-2000 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
CONTINENTAL                       27.0          3.8          3.1          4.9   
PLATORO                           60.0         21.4         29.5         24.3   
RIO GRANDE                        51.0         15.1         16.4         15.1   
SANCHEZ                          103.0         16.3         19.1         23.9   
SANTA MARIA                       45.0          6.0          6.0         10.1   
TERRACE                           18.0          2.8          3.9          5.6   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Average
================================================================================
ALAMOSA CREEK BASIN                   1                 91                 87
CONEJOS & RIO SAN ANTONIO BA          2                106                124
CULEBRA & TRINCHERA CREEK BA          3                 67                 63
UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN                4                139                125
TOTAL UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN         10                113                107
================================================================================


	SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS, AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS as of January 1, 2011

For awhile it looked like the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San 
Juan combined basins were going to miss out on all the snowfall that 
seemed to be skirting the southern half of Colorado.  Snowpack 
information collected through the SNOTEL network showed the meager 
snowpack at 43 percent of average on November 1 and 66 percent of 
average on December 1.  Then, on December 16, things took a turn for 
the better as storms moved in and pummeled the area.  In fact, in 
that two week period at the end of December, the basin accumulated 
244 percent of the average total for the month.  By January 1, the 
snowpack had rebounded to 144 percent of average.  This is the second 
highest January 1 snowpack percentage going back to 1988, behind 1997 
when the snowpack were measured at 156 percent of average.  Sub-basin 
snowpacks are well above average, ranging from 136 percent of average 
in the Dolores Watershed to 146 percent of average in the San Miguel.  
Mountain precipitation was 111 percent of average during October, 85 
percent of average in November and 209 percent of average in 
December.  As a result, total precipitation for the three-month 
period is 136 percent of average.  Reservoir storage is in good shape 
at 102 percent of average.  Compared to last year, current storage is 
up about 15 percent.  Near average to above average streamflow is 
expected at all forecast points in the basin.  April-July volumes 
should range from 105 percent of average for the Inflow to Vallecito 
Reservoir to 115 percent of average for the Mancos River near Mancos.

================================================================================
                              SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS, AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt | ===============  Chance of Exceeding * ============== |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Dolores R at Dolores
   APR-JUL      158      225       280      106       345      450       265  

McPhee Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL      200      285       350      109       420      540       320  

San Miguel R nr Placerville
   APR-JUL       90      118       140      106       164      205       132  

Gurley Reservoir Inlet
   APR-JUL     10.9     14.2      16.7       91      19.5       24      18.3  

Cone Reservoir Inlet
   APR-JUL      1.2      2.1       2.8       86       3.7      5.3       3.3  

Lilylands Reservoir Inlet
   APR-JUL      1.5      2.1       2.6       88       3.1      4.1       2.9  

Rio Blanco at Blanco Diversion (2)
   APR-JUL       43       52        60      113        68       82        53  

Navajo R at Oso Diversion (2)
   APR-JUL       50       64        75      109        87      107        69  

San Juan R nr Carracas (2)
   APR-JUL      255      355       440      109       535      700       405  

Piedra R nr Arboles
   APR-JUL      125      190       245      107       310      425       230  

Vallecito Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL      144      184       215      105       250      300       205  

Navajo Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL      470      675       830      106      1000     1290       785  

Animas R at Durango
   APR-JUL      330      425       500      114       580      705       440  

Lemon Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL       40       52        62      107        73       90        58  

La Plata R at Hesperus
   APR-JUL     16.4       23        28      112        34       44        25  

Mancos R nr Mancos (2)
   APR-JUL     10.0       27        38      115        49       66        33  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1971-2000 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS, AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
GROUNDHOG                         22.0         13.2         14.2         12.0   
JACKSON GULCH                     10.0          5.2          3.9          4.6   
LEMON                             40.0         14.4          9.6         20.1   
MCPHEE                           381.0        275.4        254.1        271.1   
NARRAGUINNEP                      19.0         13.0         10.7         12.7   
VALLECITO                        126.0         67.0         46.0         58.6   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS, AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2011
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Average
================================================================================
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN                    7                173                145
DOLORES RIVER BASIN                   4                115                136
SAN MIGUEL RIVER BASIN                3                135                146
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN                  3                147                138
TOTAL SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, A         16                150                144
================================================================================

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