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New Mexico State Basin Outlook Report for January, 2013


	NEW MEXICO Water Supply Outlook Report as of January 1, 2013

First and foremost, as another water supply forecasting year rolls 
around for New Mexico, users of this report need to be aware of some 
changes that have been made.  This year represents the transition to 
a new set of “normals,” replacing the 1971-2000 averages with updated 
1981-2010 normals.  This change allows us to better reflect current 
conditions in relation to more recent trends.  In addition, Snow 
Water Equivalent is now calculated as a percent of median value 
rather than a percent of average since this provides a better 
representation of “normal” with less influence from outlier years.  

After a near record dry 2011, 2012 proved to be another very warm and 
dry year for most of New Mexico.  Most parts of the state saw well 
below average precipitation, and for much of New Mexico, 2012 set 
records as the warmest year since measurements began.  This one-two 
punch has left much of the state in very poor condition, both from 
water supply and vegetation condition standpoints.  Outlooks for this 
snow season seem to favor a continuation of the warmer and drier 
conditions, so the hope for a good snowpack does not look overly 
promising.  It is still early in the snow accumulation season, so 
there is a chance that the state could still pick up significant 
snowpack in the next few months if the storm track moves our 
direction and carries any moisture with it.  Water managers need to 
be preparing for another year of well below average runoff if this 
does not happen. 



	SNOWPACK

New Mexico has experienced a very slow start to the snow season this 
year.  Most basins in the state had little to no snow prior to 
December.  Although the storm track did move across New Mexico during 
December, most of the storms which passed through were somewhat 
moisture starved, so the snowpack did not build as much as hoped.  
For January 1, many basins in the state are still recording less than 
70 percent of normal snowpack. Basins along the western side of the 
state are the exception, reporting slightly above normal snowpack 
levels. Given the dry conditions over the last couple years, the 
prospects for a below average snowpack for 2013 are very concerning. 
Water users and managers need to be aware of the current conditions 
throughout this snow season as it will have a major impact on water 
supply this year.



	PRECIPITATION

High elevation precipitation in October ranged from 0 percent of 
average in the Mimbres and Zuni/Bluewater River Basins to 43 percent 
of average in the Pecos River Basin.  The whole state was well below 
normal, with several basins seeing little to no precipitation for the 
month.  November remained drier than average across all of New 
Mexico, ranging from 29 percent of normal in the Mimbres Basin up to 
90 percent of normal in the Rio Hondo Basin.  December brought a 
series of storms through New Mexico, finally dropping some much 
needed precipitation.  High elevation precipitation ranged from 136 
percent of normal in the Canadian Basin to 65 percent of normal in 
the Mimbres River Basin.  As of December 31, year to date averages 
are generally well below normal for the state, ranging from 70 
percent of normal in the Animas/San Juan River Basin to 36 percent of 
normal in the Mimbres River Basin.



	RESERVOIRS

With 2011 and 2012 registering as two of the driest years in New 
Mexico history, reservoir storage has again dropped considerably 
state wide.  Demand for water stored in New Mexico reservoirs 
exceeded supply by a substantial margin.  Reservoir storage statewide 
is now only 43 percent of normal as of the end of December 2012.  
Given the relatively low current storage, the only way to possibly 
meet user demands is a much higher than normal spring runoff from 
snowpack.  Early indications are not looking very promising again 
this year, but with the majority of the snow season ahead of us, 
there is still quite a bit of uncertainty.  The early snow season has 
been below normal, and if this pattern continues, there is no way the 
state will see even near normal runoff.  At this point it is still 
very difficult to make an accurate prediction of what this year will 
bring, but water users and managers need to be prepared for very low 
runoff again this year.



	STREAMFLOW

Streamflow conditions across the state are generally at or below 
normal for this time of year statewide.  The January 1, 2013 forecast 
numbers from NRCS show the majority of New Mexico is on track for a 
significantly lower than normal runoff season at this point.  
Virtually all forecast points in the state are currently expecting 
less than 70 percent of normal runoff, with many expecting less than 
50 percent.  It is important to remember that it is still early 
enough in the snow season that things could easily change depending 
on the moisture/snow patterns in coming months, but most predictions 
call for warmer and drier than average conditions through the spring.  
Water users and managers need to be prepared for well below normal 
runoff this year.



	CANADIAN RIVER BASIN as of January 1, 2013

Streamflow forecasts for the Canadian River Basin range from 49 
percent of normal for the Mora River near Golondrinas to 64 percent 
of normal for Rayado Creek near Cimarron.  October started out the 
water year very dry, with 23 percent of normal precipitation 
received.  November remained dry, recording 44 percent of normal.  
December picked up somewhat and 136 percent of normal was received in 
the Basin.  Year-to-date high elevation precipitation in the Canadian 
River Basin is currently 68 percent or normal. The basin has been 
well below average since this water year started on October 1.  
Snowpack in the basin is well below normal for this time of year at 
61 percent of median, compared to last year's 113 percent.    Total 
reservoir storage in the basin is 31,000 acre-feet or 12 percent of 
normal, down substantially from last year’s 24 percent or 54,700 
acre-feet at this time.


================================================================================
                              CANADIAN RIVER BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt |  ============== Chance of Exceeding * ==============  |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Vermejo R nr Dawson
   MAR-JUN      2.2      4.4       6.5       59       9.2     14.6      11.1  

Cimarron R bl Eagle Nest Dam (2)
   MAR-JUN      2.8      5.0       7.1       63       9.7     14.4      11.2  

Cimarron R nr Cimarron (2)
   MAR-JUN      0.5      3.2       9.8       62      16.4       26      15.8  

Ponil Ck nr Cimarron
   MAR-JUN     1.37     2.90      4.40       61      6.40    10.20      7.20  

Rayado Ck nr Cimarron
   MAR-JUN     1.14     2.80      4.50       64      6.80    11.50      7.00  

Mora R nr Golondrinas (2)
   MAR-JUN      1.0      2.5       6.3       49      14.7       27      12.8  

Conchas Reservoir Inflow (3)
   MAR-JUN      1.0      6.6      15.0       50        28       60        30  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1981-2010 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              CANADIAN RIVER BASIN
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
CONCHAS                          254.2          2.0         16.6        197.9   
EAGLE NEST                        79.0         29.0         38.1         53.0   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              CANADIAN RIVER BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Median
================================================================================
CANADIAN RIVER BASIN                  4                 55                 61
================================================================================


	PECOS RIVER BASIN as of January 1, 2013

Streamflow forecasts for the Pecos River Basin are well below normal 
at this time, ranging from 37 percent of normal for the Pecos River 
near Anton Chico to 51 percent of normal for Gallinas Creek near 
Montezuma.  High elevation precipitation for October and November 
came in about 40 percent of normal.  December precipitation was 
somewhat better, with 100 percent of normal received. Year-to-date 
precipitation is well below normal at 61 percent for the water year 
so far.  Snowpack in the Pecos River Basin is also well below normal 
this year, at 62 percent of median, down from last year's 111 
percent.  January 1 reservoir storage in the basin is 20,600 acre-
feet, down from last year’s 32,300 acre-feet.  Compared to the 
average of 100,200 acre-feet, current storage is only 21 percent.


================================================================================
                              PECOS RIVER BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt |  ============== Chance of Exceeding * ==============  |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Gallinas Ck nr Montezuma
   MAR-JUL     0.41     2.50      5.00       51      8.30    14.70      9.80  

Pecos R nr Pecos
   MAR-JUL      8.9     19.0        28       49        39       58        57  

Pecos R nr Anton Chico
   MAR-JUL      0.7     10.3        23       37        41       76        63  

Pecos R ab Santa Rosa Lk
   MAR-JUL      1.2     10.4        22       39        38       69        56  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1981-2010 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              PECOS RIVER BASIN
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
LAKE AVALON                        4.0          2.4          2.3          2.0   
BRANTLEY                        1008.2          4.6         11.1         17.1   
SANTA ROSA                       438.3          4.8         10.1         54.4   
SUMNER                           102.0          8.8          8.8         26.7   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              PECOS RIVER BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Median
================================================================================
PECOS RIVER BASIN                     3                 54                 62
================================================================================


	RIO GRANDE BASIN as of January 1, 2013

Streamflow forecasts for the Rio Grande Basin are significantly below 
normal for the most part, ranging from 64 percent of normal for the 
El Vado Reservoir Inflow, to 36 percent of normal for the Rio Pueblo 
de Taos below Los Cordovas.  The current forecast for the Rio Grande 
at San Marcial is only 38 percent of normal or 191,000 acre-feet.  
Year-to-date precipitation is well below normal at 60 percent, much 
drier than last year at this time.  Snowpack in the basin is only 71 
percent of median – well below last year's 98 percent.  This trend 
continues into southern Colorado, where many sites are recording well 
below normal snowpack, which further impacts runoff forecasts for the 
Rio Grande Basin. Total reservoir storage in the basin is 559,000 
acre-feet, down significantly from last year’s 860,800 acre-feet.  
This is only 28 percent of the average of 1,979,300 acre-feet.  
Abiquiu, is the only reservoir in the basin with above average 
storage levels for December at 102 percent of normal.  Elephant Butte 
levels continue to decline with current storage of 161,100 acre-feet; 
compared to 294,500 acre-feet at this time last year or the 30 year 
average of 1,267,000 acre feet.


================================================================================
                              RIO GRANDE BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt |  ============== Chance of Exceeding * ==============  |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Rio Grande nr Del Norte (2)
   APR-SEP      195      275       340       66       410      525       515  

Platoro Reservoir Inflow  (2)
   APR-JUL       27       36        43       77        50       59        56  
   APR-SEP       29       40        47       76        54       65        62  

Conejos R nr Mogote  (2)
   APR-SEP       83      119       144       74       169      205       194  

Costilla Reservoir Inflow (2)
   MAR-JUL      3.7      5.5       7.0       63       8.6     11.4      11.1  

Costilla Ck nr Costilla (2)
   MAR-JUL      6.1     10.5      14.1       54      18.3       25        26  

Red R bl Fish Hatchery nr Questa
   MAR-JUL      8.6     13.3      17.0       50        21       28        34  

Rio Hondo nr Valdez
   MAR-JUL      4.0      7.2       9.9       54      13.0     18.4      18.4  

Rio Lucero nr Arroyo Seco
   MAR-JUL      2.6      4.5       6.1       56       7.9     11.1      10.9  

Rio Pueblo de Taos nr Taos
   MAR-JUL      2.8      6.1       9.1       54      12.7     19.1      17.0  

Rio Pueblo de Taos bl Los Cordovas
   MAR-JUL      2.3      7.6      12.9       36      19.7       32        36  

Embudo Ck at Dixon
   MAR-JUL      5.6     14.1        22       46        32       49        48  

El Vado Reservoir Inflow (2)
   MAR-JUL       56      103       144       64       191      275       225  
   APR-JUL       49       93       130       63       174      250       205  

Santa Cruz R at Cundiyo
   MAR-JUL      3.7      7.0       9.8       54      13.1     18.9      18.3  

Nambe Falls Reservoir Inflow (2)
   MAR-JUL     1.23     2.30      3.30       51      4.40     6.40      6.50  

Tesuque Ck ab diversions
   MAR-JUL     0.13     0.40      0.67       50      1.00     1.62      1.34  

Rio Grande at Otowi Bridge (2)
   MAR-JUL      146      250       340       47       440      615       720  

Santa Fe R nr Santa Fe (2)
   MAR-JUL     0.37     1.11      1.85       43      2.80     4.50      4.30  

Jemez R nr Jemez
   MAR-JUL      7.3     14.1        20       48        27       39        42  

Jemez R bl Jemez Canyon Dam
   MAR-JUL      3.1      8.6      14.0       41        21       33        34  

Rio Grande at San Marcial (2)
   MAR-JUL       36      114       191       38       290      465       510  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1981-2010 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              RIO GRANDE BASIN
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
ABIQUIU                         1192.8        155.9        181.6        152.7   
BLUEWATER LAKE                    38.5          3.4          4.6         11.7   
CABALLO                          332.0          7.5         13.6         68.0   
COCHITI                          491.0         52.9         50.8         63.1   
COSTILLA                          16.0          2.3          2.6          6.0   
EL VADO                          190.3         10.0         86.2        102.8   
ELEPHANT BUTTE                  2195.0        161.1        294.5       1267.0   
HERON                            400.0        165.9        226.9        308.0   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              RIO GRANDE BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Median
================================================================================
RIO GRANDE BASIN                     12                 68                 71
================================================================================


	MIMBRES RIVER BASIN as of January 1, 2013

The streamflow forecast for the January to May period for the Mimbres 
River Basin is 1,430 acre-feet or 60 percent of the median runoff.  
October started off the water year with no measurable precipitation 
received.  November precipitation was also very low with only 29 
percent of normal measured. December precipitation picked up 
somewhat, with 65 percent of normal recorded. Year-to-date 
precipitation is around 36 percent of normal since October 1, a very 
dry start to the water year.  Snowpack in the basin is near normal at 
105 percent of median, compared to last year’s 253 percent at this 
time.  

Users of NRCS Snow Survey data should be aware, due to reduced budget 
allocations, the manual snow course at McKnight Cabin has been 
discontinued, and Emory Pass #2 is being considered for 
discontinuation.  Data from the automated SNOTEL at McKnight 
continues, but Emory Pass #2 will cease to report if discontinued.


================================================================================
                              MIMBRES RIVER BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt |  ============== Chance of Exceeding * ==============  |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Med
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% MED.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Mimbres R at Mimbres (3)
   JAN-MAY     0.22     0.77      1.43       60      2.40     4.50      2.40  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average and median are computed for the 1981-2010 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              MIMBRES RIVER BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Median
================================================================================
MIMBRES RIVER BASIN                   3                 29                105
================================================================================


	SAN FRANCISCO/UPPER GILA RIVER BASIN as of January 1, 2013

Streamflow forecasts for the San Francisco/Upper Gila River Basin 
range from 49 percent of normal for the Gila River below Blue Creek 
near Virden, to 95 percent of normal on the San Francisco River at 
Glenwood.  Precipitation for the month of October was almost non-
existent, with 3 percent of normal received.  November saw a slight 
upswing in moisture, with 64 percent of normal precipitation. As has 
been the case for the last few years, December precipitation picked 
back up somewhat, with 105 percent of normal recorded.  Year-to-date 
precipitation is hovering around 60 percent of average as of January 
1.  Snowpack in the basin is at 119 percent of median, compared to 
last year’s 150 percent at this time. 


================================================================================
                              SAN FRANCISCO/UPPER GILA RIVER BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt |  ============== Chance of Exceeding * ==============  |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Med
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% MED.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Gila R at Gila (3)
   JAN-MAY     17.0       21        30       54        42       65        56  

Gila R bl Blue Ck nr Virden (3)
   JAN-MAY     16.0       21        37       49        58       97        76  

San Francisco R at Glenwood (3)
   JAN-MAY      5.9     13.0        20       95        29       47        21  

San Francisco R at Clifton (3)
   JAN-MAY     13.0       29        47       77        70      112        61  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average and median are computed for the 1981-2010 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              SAN FRANCISCO/UPPER GILA RIVER BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Median
================================================================================
SAN FRANCISCO/UPPER GILA RIV         10                 60                119
================================================================================


	ZUNI/BLUEWATER BASINS as of January 1, 2013

Streamflow forecasts for the Zuni/Bluewater Basins range from 92 
percent of normal for the Rio Nutria near Ramah to 61 percent of 
normal for the Bluewater Lake Inflow.  October started off the water 
year with no measureable precipitation received.  November 
precipitation was up somewhat with 71 percent of normal being 
recorded.  December was 100 percent of normal, much drier than the 
last few years.  Year-to-date precipitation is well below normal, at 
63 percent.  Snowpack in the basin is slightly above normal, with 113 
percent of median, down from last year's 169 percent of average.  
Storage in Bluewater Lake is 3,400 acre-feet or 29 percent of normal, 
down somewhat from last year’s 4,600 acre-feet at the end of 
December.


================================================================================
                              ZUNI/BLUEWATER BASINS
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt |  ============== Chance of Exceeding * ==============  |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Med
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% MED.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Bluewater Lake Inflow (2,3)
   JAN-MAY     0.00     0.50      2.00       61      7.60    15.70      3.30  

Rio Nutria nr Ramah (3)
   JAN-MAY     0.07     0.54      1.30       92      2.60     5.60      1.42  

Ramah Reservoir Inflow (3)
   JAN-MAY     0.01     0.29      0.71       89      1.32     2.60      0.80  

Zuni River ab Black Rock Reservoir (3)
   JAN-MAY     0.00     0.05      0.38       81      1.27     4.20      0.47  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average and median are computed for the 1981-2010 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              ZUNI/BLUEWATER BASINS
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
BLUEWATER LAKE                    38.5          3.4          4.6         11.7   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              ZUNI/BLUEWATER BASINS
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Median
================================================================================
ZUNI/BLUEWATER BASINS                 4                 85                113
================================================================================


	SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN as of January 1, 2013

Streamflow forecasts for the San Juan River Basin range from 62 
percent of normal for the Navajo Reservoir Inflow, to 72 percent of 
normal for the Rio Blanco at Blanco Diversion and the Navajo River at 
the Oso Diversion.  October started the water year out dry, with 19 
percent of normal precipitation received.  November precipitation was 
only 61 percent of normal.  Like other northern basins in New Mexico, 
December precipitation was slightly above average in the basin, with 
128 percent of normal received.  Year-to-date precipitation reflects 
the dry start to the water year, recording only 70 percent of normal 
as of January 1.  Snowpack in the basin is 66 percent of median, even 
lower than last year's 75 percent at this time.  Navajo reservoir 
storage is 956,300 acre-feet or 71 percent of normal, down 
significantly from last year's 1,310,900 acre-feet at the end of 
December.


================================================================================
                              SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt |  ============== Chance of Exceeding * ==============  |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Rio Blanco at Blanco Diversion (2)
   APR-JUL       22       32        39       72        47       60        54  

Navajo R at Oso Diversion (2)
   APR-JUL       26       38        47       72        57       74        65  

Navajo Reservoir Inflow (2)
   APR-JUL      245      360       455       62       560      735       735  

Animas R at Durango
   APR-JUL      153      220       275       66       335      435       415  

La Plata R at Hesperus
   APR-JUL      6.2     10.7      14.5       63      18.9       26        23  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1981-2010 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN
                   Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of December
================================================================================
                                Usable     ********** Usable Storage *********
Reservoir                      Capacity    This Year    Last Year      Average
================================================================================
NAVAJO                          1696.0        956.3       1310.9       1341.0   
================================================================================

================================================================================
                              SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Median
================================================================================
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN                 11                 80                 66
================================================================================


	RIO HONDO BASIN as of January 1, 2013

The streamflow forecast for the March to June period for the Rio 
Hondo Basin is 3,300 acre-feet or 49 percent of normal for the Rio 
Ruidoso at Hollywood.  Similar to the rest of New Mexico, October 
precipitation in the Rio Hondo Basin was very low, with only 16 
percent of normal received.  November precipitation picked up 
somewhat, with 90 percent of normal recorded for the month. December 
precipitation continued near average, with 103 percent of normal 
received. Year-to-date precipitation is 66 percent of normal, 
reflecting the dry start to the water year.  The snowpack in the Rio 
Hondo Basin is 206 percent of median, with 6.6 inches of SWE present 
on January 1.  

It should be noted that the switch to using median snowpack values 
this year has had a significant influence on the “average” 
calculations for the Rio Hondo Basin.  Using the old system of 
computing averages based on the 1971-2000 period, 6.7 inches of SWE 
was considered normal for January 1.  Using the new median 
calculations based on the 1981-2010 period, 3.2 inches of SWE is now 
normal.  For this reason, comparisons of “percent of average” from 
year to year will be limited in this basin to minimize confusion.


================================================================================
                              RIO HONDO BASIN
                      Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
            |  <=== Drier ===  Future  Conditions  === Wetter ===>  |
            |                                                       |
Forecast Pt |  ============== Chance of Exceeding * ==============  |
   Forecast |  90%       70%   |       50%       |  30%       10%   | 30 Yr Avg
   Period   |(1000AF)  (1000AF)|(1000AF) (% AVG.)|(1000AF)  (1000AF)| (1000AF)
================================================================================
Rio Ruidoso at Hollywood
   MAR-JUN     0.17     1.56      3.30       49      5.70    10.40      6.70  

================================================================================
   * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that
     the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

   The average is computed for the 1981-2010 base period.

   (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are
         actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
   (2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream
         water management.
   (3) - Median value used in place of average.
================================================================================
                              RIO HONDO BASIN
                   Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2013
================================================================================
                                 Number of           This Year as Percent of
Watershed                        Data Sites          Last Year       Median
================================================================================
RIO HONDO BASIN                       1                 66                206
================================================================================

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