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Wyoming Basin Outlook Report for
UPPER BEAR RIVER BASIN as of March 1, 2012

Snow Snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Upper Bear River Basin in Utah is estimated to be 71% of average. SWE in the Wyoming portion of the Bear River drainage (Smiths and Thomas Forks) is at 81% of average. Bear River Basin SWE, above the Idaho State line, is 76% of average. For more information see Basin Summary of Snow Course Data at the beginning of this report. Precipitation Precipitation for last month was 68% of average for the 2 reporting stations; this is 79% of the precipitation received last year. The year-to-date precipitation, for the basin, is 74% of average; this is 64% of last year s amount. Reservoir Storage in Woodruff Narrows reservoir is 49,000 ac-ft (178% of average). Current reservoir storage is about 86% of capacity. Reservoir storage last year at this time was 45,000 ac-ft. Streamflow The following 50% exceedance forecasts are for the April through September period. The Bear River near the Utah-Wyoming State Line is 90,000 ac-ft (72% of average). The Bear River above Reservoir near Woodruff is 81,000 ac-ft (57% of average). The Smiths Fork River near Border is 86,000 ac-ft (71% of average). See the following table for more detailed information on projected runoff.

Streamflow Forecasts

UPPER BEAR RIVER BASIN
Streamflow Forecasts - March 1, 2012

 <==== Drier === Future Conditions === Wetter ====> 
Forecast Pt============ Chance of Exceeding * =========== 
   Forecast90%70%50% (Most Prob)30%10%30 Yr Avg
   Period(1000AF)(1000AF)(1000AF)(% AVG.)(1000AF)(1000AF)(1000AF)

Bear R nr UT-WY State Line
APR-JUL 50       69       82       73       95       114       113      
APR-SEP 53       75       90       72       105       127       125      
Bear R ab Res nr Woodruff
APR-JUL 31       59       78       57       97       125       136      
APR-SEP 33       61       81       57       101       129       142      
Smiths Fk nr Border
APR-JUL 38       54       65       63       76       92       103      
APR-SEP 55       73       86       71       99       117       121      

    * 90%, 70%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that the
       actual flow will exceed the volumes in the table.

    (1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Change of Exceeding are
            actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
    (2) - The value is natural flow - actual flow may be affected by upstream
            water management.



Reservoir Storage

UPPER BEAR RIVER BASIN
Reservoir Storage (1000AF) End of February

 Usable************* Usable Storage *************
Reservoir Capacity This Year Last Year Average

WOODRUFF NARROWS 57.3      49.0         45.0          27.6        



Watershed Snowpack Analysis

UPPER BEAR RIVER BASIN
Watershed Snowpack Analysis - March 1, 2012

 Number ofThis Year as Percent of
Watershed Data Sites Last Year Normal

UPPER BEAR RIVER in Utah 6               52               71              
SMITHS & THOMAS FORKS 4               68               81              
BEAR RIVER abv ID line 8               59               76              
NORTHWEST 75               93               98              
NORTHEST 22               115               127              
SOUTHEAST 35               68               87              
SOUTHWEST 33               76               86              

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or Write:
D. Lee Hackleman, Water Supply Specialist
Natural Resources Conservation Service
100 East B Street
Casper, WY 82601
(307) 261-6481

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